Andrew Collier | Aug 14, 2020 China’s Inefficient Stimulus Prior to 2020, the largest contribution to growth of economic value add (with some fluctuation) has been the state sector. SOE value add bottomed out at -2.5% YoY in March 2020 but has since topped private value add at 4.9%. The rapid improvement in the state […]
The widening fiscal deficit will restrict further stimulus efforts Summary China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through […]
Xi Jinping is widely viewed as China’s strongest leaders since Deng Xiao Ping thirty years ago. He has consolidated control over the Party, rammed home an anti-corruption campaign, and pledged backing for the expansion of the state sector through programs like “One Belt One Road” and “Made in China 2025.” But behind the flagship programs […]
See my comments below…. Published onDecember 29, 2017 Engen Tham, Matthew Miller and David Lague, Reuters SHANGHAI/BEIJING/HONG KONG, Dec 28 (Reuters) – In March 2013, retired chemical company employee Anne Xing, her older sister and their husbands visited a China Everbright Bank branch on the outskirts of Shanghai. A private wealth manager at the bank […]
Notes from China Beijing Sees New Problems Summary We just conducted a week of interviews in Beijing and nearby Jinan, Capital of Shandong Province. A few thoughts on these subjects: l Inflation. l Consumer Debt. l Growing Receivables. l New Private Banks l Rising Power of Reformer Wang Yang l The Mantra of Private Public Partnerships Inflation in Beijing’s Sites […]
China Opens Up Financial System Daybreak Asia November 13th, 2017, 9:04 AM GMT+0800 Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research, discusses China opening up its financial system and where he sees opportunity. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-13/china-opens-up-financial-system-video
Fiscal Reality Limits his Power over the Economy Summary Most analysts believe Xi Jinping is likely to increase his power following the Party Congress on October 18 by strengthening his control over the Party’s Standing Committee. This, in turn, could give him the political freedom to institute economic reforms, including restructuring of state firms, and […]
Summary Bond Defaults in China SOEs are not protected In 2016, there were defaults of 79 Chinese bonds for a total value of Rmb40.3 billion. This was an increase of 243% YoY. We draw several conclusions from default data on future economic policy and how the leadership will handle rising debt: 1) The MostDefaults were […]
China’s Financial Summit The Leadership Meets Hard Reality On Friday and Saturday July 14 and 15, Beijing will hold a key financial meeting, that is expected to be attended by President Xi Jinping. This may be China’s most import economic planning meeting in several years as it will be a test of Beijing’s ability to […]
July 12, 2017 — 10:39 AM HKT Andrew Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research spoke with Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on the on PBOC’s official newspaper saying China should expand the yuan’s trading band. He sees a lot of downward pressure on the yuan. He also looked at the flurry of M&A activity seen […]